PROBABILITY THEORY IN ECONOMETRICS AND BASIC CONCEPTS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
Аннотация
In the realm of quantitative analysis, the intersection of probability theory and econometrics unveils a rich tapestry of insights essential for understanding economic phenomena. This essay aims to explore the foundational concepts of probability theory as they pertain to econometric practices, highlighting their relevance in modeling and predicting economic behavior. By delving into the mechanisms through which probability influences economic decision-making, we seek to establish a clear relationship between theoretical developments in mathematics and their practical applications in econometrics. Such an exploration not only reinforces the importance of a probabilistic framework but also elucidates how mathematical statistics provides the tools necessary for robust data analysis. Ultimately, a comprehensive grasp of these concepts allows researchers to harness data effectively, guiding policymakers and economists in their quest to interpret complex economic systems. Thus, this essay will systematically unravel the fundamental principles of probability theory and their essential role in econometric methodology.
Библиографические ссылки
Leeson, Robert "The ghosts I called I canu27t get rid of now : The Keynes-Tinbergen-Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics" ResearchOnline@ND, 2000.
Spanos, Aris "Where do statistical models come from? Revisiting the problem of specification" 'Institute of Mathematical Statistics', 2006.
Spanos, Aris "Where do statistical models come from? Revisiting the problem of specification" 'Institute of Mathematical Statistics', 2006.
Aldrich, John "How likelihood and identification went Bayesian"
Geweke, J, Horowitz, JL, Pesaran, MH "Econometrics: A bird's eye view" Macmillan, 2008.
Christian P. Robert "On the Relevance of the Bayesian Approach to Statistics"
Arnold Zellner "Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Approaches to Scientific Modeling and Inference in Economics and Econometrics"
Arnold Zellner "Honorary Lecture on S. James Press and Bayesian Analysis"
Keuzenkamp, H.A. "Keynes and the logic of econometric method"
Geweke, J, Horowitz, JL, Pesaran, MH "Econometrics: A bird's eye view" Macmillan, 2008.
Necula, Ciprian "Modeling Heavy-Tailed Stock Index Returns Using the Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution"
Andersen, Torben G., Bollerslev, Tim, Christoffersen, Peter F., Diebold, Francis X. "Volatility forecasting" 2005.
